Future Friday Keegan Murray
[00:00:00] Dustin: All right, everybody. Welcome to the 282nd edition of the wholly backward podcast. I am Dustin here in rip city and they got my men,
[00:00:19] Dillon Sage: Sage Shalon live and direct. We’re about to talk about a very dominant college basketball player. I think this might be one of the ones where we disagree the most, but Dustin let’s intro Keegan.
[00:00:33] Dustin: Keegan Murray from the university of Iowa. He is a combo forward stands six eight weighs 2 25, 21 years of age, uh, from Cedar rapids, Iowa. Uh, unheralded recruit, just a three-star by rivals.com. Uh, rivals shows Iowa as Keegan. Only offer like Anthony Simons, uh, Keegan spent a [00:01:00] post-grad year at, um, DME sports academy in Daytona beach, Florida.
[00:01:06] Anthony was obviously IMG academy. Uh, so. A little bit of background on Keegan. He was a honor roll student, all four years in high school. Also lettered three years in golf. Uh, father Kenyon played at Iowa from 93 to 96. Uh, mother Michelle. He actually has a twin brother, Chris, who is also a sophomore Iowa.
[00:01:29] So when I was first watching them, it took me a while to figure out which one was Keegan, which one was Chris. Uh, also has a couple of siblings, McKenna and. Uh, he was a 2021 all big 10 freshmen team member on the season. Right now I was having a fantastic year, uh, coming off of. I mean, they lost Luca Garza, which was one of the country’s best players and they really have missed a beat.
[00:01:57] They’re currently 22 and eight they’re 24th and the [00:02:00] AP poll 25th and the coaches poll, uh, and Marie, it has really been putting up. I would say player of the year type of numbers so far for Iowa. I mean, you could debate whether it’s going to be Oscar Sheba or Bennett Mather in or any number of have been big 10 players, but Keegan Murray has, is, has as good of a case as any national player of the year.
[00:02:27] In those 28 games, Maria’s averaging 23.3 points. Shooting 56% from the field 36 and a half percent from 3 72 from the line pulling down, uh, 8.6 boards, uh, w averaging 1.3 assist people ox 1.3 steals. Just 1.1 turnovers in 31 minutes of action is advanced. Stats are crazy. The 38.4 player efficiency rating is the highest [00:03:00] of any prospect that we have scouted so far.
[00:03:03] Uh, the numbers are really jumping off of the board for Keegan Marie. Uh, he has six double doubles this year, uh, including a 27 point 21 rebound performance against North Carolina central. Uh, the game we are looking at is from January. The sixth of this year against a very talented Wisconsin team that took home the big 10 regular season title.
[00:03:27] But, you know, we both also have caught some games of Murray over the course of the season. So we will, you know, dabble into which game we’re talking about, or just pull from observations really from this entire season. Yeah.
[00:03:42] Dillon Sage: At this point in time, it’s like we watch one game just so we have some point of reference that we can agree on.
[00:03:48] And then we just watch other games to have a more well-informed opinion of, uh, of these prospects. So can I, can I tell you my thought [00:04:00] process? When I first watched him, he, he did really well in this Wisconsin game. Obviously Johnny Davis, I think was the shining star
[00:04:07] Dustin: of that game. Yeah, Keenan, Mary, just, just for reference 27 points on 10 of 16 shooting, 50% from downtown, got to the line nine times five boards, three blocks of steel in 35 minutes of action.
[00:04:21] So yeah, it was a fantastic performer. He kept them afloat,
[00:04:25] Dillon Sage: pure production, not. Like this isn’t the comp section, but pure production. Do you remember? Uh, Frank Kaminsky in his, I think junior year, not senior year, like that level of domination on another, another team. Like he is their only really good player, so smart teams are going to target him.
[00:04:46] But when he gets that chance to show off his game, If you get to see something, I think what really he is, as a, as a prospect is a guy that [00:05:00] can potentially spread the floor. I believe in his jump shot. I think it’s like a 35, 30 6% jump shot. I believe that he’s a catch and shoot guy. I think he, he is a catch and shoot three point shooter that is as a plus team defense.
[00:05:14] That rebounds well and can attack close out and play make a little bit, I think that is the general, like when you’re selling Keegan Murray, when you’re in the draft room trying to sell Keegan Murray, that’s the type of player that you’re selling. The problem is when I watched him, I feel like at the beginning of the year, He was playing at just some crazy apex as a defender.
[00:05:39] And as the years gone on because of the scoring load that he’s has, has the burden. I see him getting a little bit lazy on his defense. I don’t see the rotations as well, because this was a January game. I was thinking like a plus defender. But when I was watching some older tape, I was like, holy. The tape that I was watching with [00:06:00] John against Johnny Davis.
[00:06:01] Isn’t the good tape. When he was in the beginning of the season, he was just like, the effort was a plus. And now we’re just seeing like an a, so a.
[00:06:12] Dustin: When I think that’s to be expected, like I was not projected to be a good team this year. As I mentioned, they, they lost Luca Garza who was a fantastic collegiate basketball player and the shooter.
[00:06:24] He is doing everything for the Iowa team like that. I would say. It is not good. The fact that they are in contention in, I think probably the best conference in America speaks to how dominate he’s been on, on this level. Like when I watched him, it may have not been at the level that you mentioned earlier on, but I thought he was getting switched onto guards.
[00:06:47] He was holding his own. Um, he had, he has a really high IQ defensively, uh, stayed with Johnny Davis instead of. Early on in the game. Uh, Wisconsin. I [00:07:00] was trying to run off fence and he was defending Johnny Davis and he’s like, no, I’m not gonna double team. Even if there’s a mismatch. I know Davis is one of the premier shooters and I don’t want to get him going like that.
[00:07:10] That was a, an intelligent play to just stay with his man to stay with the best player on the floor. Like so many times you get, uh, players that try to do too much and they ended up making mistakes. They ended up getting out of movement or out of position. Um, I think. Held his own against Davis on multiple occasions.
[00:07:28] And I think he shows potential to defend at least three positions. Um, at the next level, I think those three positions, two, three or four. Okay. Like, I, I, I think he’s just. And I think he can he’s he’s mobile enough that he can stick, like he could stick with Josh heart rate now. Um, yes.
[00:07:51] Dillon Sage: I mean, I would’ve felt better if you said some, a bigger, powerful wing instead of a guy that can play make
[00:07:57] Dustin: a little bit, you can stick with Josh Hart.
[00:07:59] [00:08:00] I don’t have, I don’t have any qualms about him defensively, especially the burden that is being put on him offensively. Like we’ve seen this with Damian Lillard, not being able to give any. On the defensive end because he shouldered with so much of a load off offensively, like, and I’ll talk to a game that I was watching.
[00:08:18] I was watching them play in Nebraska and it was at Nebraska, Nebraska at the time was like one in 15 in conference. And they were selling out to not let Keegan Murray beat them. He had 37 on them, I think just a couple of weeks ago. In Iowa. So they already knew what he was capable of. So he’s not only shouldering the load offensively, but he is now getting the attention of 10 eyes on him at all times.
[00:08:45] And you, the toll that gets taken on you, like, I think that that’s really challenging. So when he’s not going to be a number one option in the NBA, I don’t think anybody is saying that, but you see players that when they start to [00:09:00] play with talented guys around. And it opens up so, so much. I mean, you look at, at any time the blazers have had any talented, uh, teammates through Dame.
[00:09:11] His game has elevated, um, even look at the game with the blazers against the suns and for assignments had 11 points in that first quarter. That means kind of took them out of the game because no, wait, we’re gonna let CJ lb shoot the ball. We’re going to Elijah who she was, but we’re not gonna let you touch the ball.
[00:09:25] So. I think he is going to have that A-plus energy on the defensive end, because he’s not going to have to be the primary option. Now, is he going to be a McKell bridges type of defender? I don’t know, but I think he’s going to be at least a plus defender. I don’t think you’re going to have to worry about him at all on, on that side of the ball.
[00:09:47] It’s it’s interesting to debate this, but I’m more concerned about what he looks like as an offensive player.
[00:09:53] Dillon Sage: I think defensively is his strong suit. I wanted to, I wanted to talk about the positives [00:10:00] of his game, where I think he is. I think he. Th the way that they play their zone and the way that he is a power of every positional group in that zone, like he’s playing at the hoop, he’s playing in the press position.
[00:10:13] He’s playing at the wing. It shows the defensive versatility that he can bring as a, as a potential defender. The, the offense was where I was like, okay, I need to watch more tape. I I’m pretty much sold that he is going to be a good defender in the league. You know, as you watch more tape, there’s more chances for him to improve and to, uh, look worse.
[00:10:39] I kind of felt like as the years gone on his defensive wind from an a plus to like an a or an a minus. But I think that one of the things that kind of worries me is that he has that body where you think that he’s really strong, but I watched [00:11:00] the Iowa state game and he was kind of getting pushed, pushed around in the post.
[00:11:05] Do you think that. He can bulk up without losing any mobility. Cause I, I truly don’t think that he has, that he can guard, uh, three position groups. I think he can defend fours and some threes. So do you think that the Portland trailblazers staff could help him put on good strength without losing a lot of mobility into putting into that?
[00:11:34] Dustin: I don’t know how much more weight you’d want to put on that frame. Like he’s 6, 8, 2 25. Like, I, I. Carrie Eggers, Carrie Eggers put out a book about Jerome Kersey. And I was reading it in drum was talking about, and this was obviously interviews before drone passed and he was talking about how he kept putting on more and more weight.
[00:11:53] And like, he eventually reached a point where he put on too much and it was slowing him down and he had one of his worst years. Like [00:12:00] he was missing time. He wasn’t as explosive. Like Keegan Murray is already not an explosive athlete. I don’t. Yeah, no, he is, but I don’t. I think if you add more weight to the frame, I think it’s going to slow him down.
[00:12:15] And I don’t think he, he needs that like five to seven pounds of muscle. Obviously you get your MBA body. Right. But I think lean is what is lean and getting quicker rather than bulking up and getting strong. I think it’s going to be a better him in, in the NBA. You talked about being sold on him as a catch and shoot shooter.
[00:12:34] And I completely agree. I think when I watch him play, that’s what I get most intrigued about. But obviously you’re watching college basketball and it’s no different than when you play in the YMCAs or you play, um, you know, boys and girls club, the biggest player on the court, strongest player. They’re always going to put you down low and they’re going to try to get you buckets.
[00:12:53] That’s Iowa has lived. And breathed Keegan Marie dominating the post. Like he is a [00:13:00] fantastic collegiate basketball player at sealing his man at, he has great hands around the basket, great field. That’s not going to work in the NBA. There’s only two players that do that in the NBA and that’s Yogesh and Embiid.
[00:13:12] So you have to really remove that when you’re watching. I will basketball because like the coach is going to do what is best for Keegan at this level. He doesn’t really necessarily care about how, what he’s doing now translates to the pros. Like they’re trying to win games now. So yeah, this stats pop off the page, but what is a little worrisome to me?
[00:13:35] And this usually happens when, um, prospects come into the league that have really lived off. Just kind of bullying and punishing other defenders in a post is you look at Keegan and of his field goals made per game. He, he averages about 8.8 mics per game. Four of those come from Milwaukee. And only [00:14:00] 1.6 come from downtown.
[00:14:02] So you’re really looking at only he ever just 23 points, 20 of those points are coming probably either in the paint or at the line. I don’t think he’s going to be that type of player in the professional league. So, and when I think about that, it reminds me a lot of Michael. Uh, remove the off, off the court stuff.
[00:14:19] Aside Beasley punished defenders, smaller defenders at K state, and that’s where he lived. And it just, it never translated. Now, granted Keegan has a much better jump shot. Beasley had the better handle. I think it all really depends on your expectations for Keegan Murray. I think a lot of people see the stats.
[00:14:38] They see he could be national player of the year and they think it’s all going to translate. But every time he gets a touch in the post. You can just almost like close your eyes and go to sleep and wait for the next possession, because it’s just, it’s not going to happen. He has a three, I think the next level can play some for you’re not posting up threes and fours in the league.
[00:14:59] Dillon Sage: I think the [00:15:00] only way that, that, that skillset is viable is if let’s say that they do a full switch and Anthony can’t get by his man. Pass it to Keegan and he would post the small one and get points that way. I think the real, the, the, the, uh, the weight gain is that there’s such thing as show muscles and go muscles.
[00:15:21] I think Keegan Murray has show muscles and not go muscles when he gets posted up by other other players. It kind of shows the, uh, the. The, uh, lack of strength. And it’s weird to say that about a guy that’s built like a brick shit house, but he’s not strong, but when, when I watch him offensively, the, the main thing that sticks out to me is that he’s a really, really good rebound.
[00:15:46] For his size at six eight, like that, that shows the, the skill set that he can show in the NBA because you can’t really, you can’t really say like we’re going to post them up against other [00:16:00] NBA players and it’s going to be good often. I think that would be the opposite of that. But when, when he shows the touch off of a rebound that he can put up really fast, that shows some, uh, some strength in his game.
[00:16:13] What we need to see is that. That consistent Jumpshot that I don’t think they’re going to show because they’re competing and it’s not a good team. Um, one thing that I thought was really interesting was when he has space, he can kind of be a play finisher, I think because of Iowa and they’re bad team outside of him, they, they press them a lot and is handling.
[00:16:41] Is okay. Like it’s functional, but when he has space, he can make the right read as a Playmaker. It’s just with Iowa spacing. It is handled looks really bad when I think it’s just, okay. When, during NBA spacing, what, what did you [00:17:00] think about the play-making of Keegan Marie? There was some pretty damn good passes in that Wisconsin.
[00:17:07] Dustin: Yeah, that’s interesting that you are talking about with play-making. I specifically have in my notes, he’s not a play-making threat. Um, I needed
[00:17:15] Dillon Sage: hi conditions have to be perfect for him to be a Playmaker, but I, I re I vividly remember, oh, this might be his brother, but I remember one of the Murray’s passing open, uh, cutting Iowa player.
[00:17:31] I’m not saying his play-making is good, but it was surprising to see the, the ability of one of the Murray’s. It might be the other one as a, uh, as a potential play Playmaker. But I think his real value is going to be the hustle plays and potential catching shooting. I mean, I
[00:17:52] Dustin: think. He has value in that he’s six, eight, and can handle the ball.
[00:17:57] He had a couple of coast to coast lands. He [00:18:00] also had a couple where he got
[00:18:01] Dillon Sage: fast is where it looks like he has a functional
[00:18:03] Dustin: handle, but he also got picked pretty easily in the open court. So, and that’s from a collegiate defender. I mean, it’s going to need to be refined and tightened up, but. He’s mobile and nimble enough that you can, you can project that in in a few years.
[00:18:19] Um, anytime you have a big that’s shows the ability to handle the ball, I almost think of like, Nick would tomb on the blazers. You don’t, you don’t want to see him cross over anybody, but like Nick got the outlet and he was pushing the ball up the floor like that, that was a six, eight small hoard. I kind of envisioned that similar with Murray.
[00:18:38] Like that’s probably to the extent that you want him doing it. But what I really see his value, not just on the pick and pop. Or off the bounce, but if you’re going to say, okay, he’s six, eight. If you want to play them against a smaller guy or a slower player, [00:19:00] there was a couple of times where, and again, they’re really just dumping it downloading a couple of times where he got the ball elbow extended and he was facing up.
[00:19:09] And I think he could be a true triple threat position, a player in those scenarios where you give him a job. That’s a bucket or you come up too tight, he’s going to go around you. And that’s where I could see the finishing ability really coming in handy, not off of the catch, but creating for himself, you know, 10, 15 feet extended.
[00:19:28] So he has more potential offensively, uh, to create for himself. But I, I agree, like I think he’s going to be a lights out shooter and he perform looks great. It looks pretty effortless. Uh, I think playing with. A couple of Playmakers that know how to get him into a spots. Like if you put him with a Chris Paul or even throw back to bill Walton, like somebody who knew where he wanted to go, he’s going to really take advantage of those opportunities.
[00:19:58] But he needs someone to set the [00:20:00] table for him. Then he’ll go to work.
[00:20:01] Dillon Sage: I had this written down, but he is a grab and go type of driven. So, like you were saying, I really don’t see the mobility van. I really think he’s a strict for in the next level. Like, I, I really don’t think that he is, uh, as, uh, uh, versatile as, uh, we’ve been saying.
[00:20:21] And can I be real if we drafted them with our first pick, I will be furious. I don’t think he’s that level of prospect. Like, let’s just say we get the sixth pick. If we drafted Keke and Marie over some of, some of these other prospects, I would be on this podcast talking about how bad crone it is. Like I, I, I don’t see him at a star potential at all.
[00:20:48] I see him as the fifth starter. And when, when you use your fifth, your first pick in your first potential lottery pick on a guy, that’s a role-player [00:21:00] ah, I’m not particularly happy about it. I I’m I’m, I’m trying to be, I’m trying to look at the positives, but when I watched him offensively, I was like, okay, he put up 27, but it was mostly dunks and free throws.
[00:21:14] I have to see something else in his game. There’s some limitations to his game that I think that kind of worry me as a, as a prospect, especially that the whole he’s a post player, but as a, a pretty bad vertical. That first game. I was like, yeah, he got 27, but it was underwhelming to me. So then I watched other games and I was like, okay, he’s not going to provide that much scoring versatility, but the S the floor is pretty high.
[00:21:45] It’s just where he’s projected and tank as a top seven. I don’t think he’s observant of that spot. I
[00:21:51] Dustin: don’t think that’s pretty harsh. Um,
[00:21:53] Dillon Sage: I tried for the first part of this podcast, not to, to see the positives in his game. [00:22:00] I just couldn’t anymore. Like I am I’m underwhelmed of him as the seventh ranked prospect on Thankathon.
[00:22:07] I think
[00:22:07] Dustin: he’s definitely a top 10 pick. You have to give a lot of credit to someone who shows growth. Uh, This is really his first full season leading a team like he went from relative bench player, backing up Garza to now this is his squad. And I value that when I see growth in progression from players.
[00:22:30] That’s why this draft is so fascinating. We have so many. Horse that have really grown and developed their games. I mean, even over the course of this season, from when I watched them early on to what I see now, uh, do I see a future hall of Famer? No, I see a fringe all-star type of player. Like if you had just one pick and you took Murray and there were other players on the board.
[00:22:53] Yeah. Probably wouldn’t be like super stoked, but to be honest, Him alongside Dame or [00:23:00] assignments, they’re going to set the table for him. Like he is going to be a really helpful player. Um, and what I talked about, I think on the last future Friday issue of teams that try to go for the home, run in the lottery, like outside of the top three picks, they always try to go like, oh, I need the highest dealing guy.
[00:23:19] A lot of teams would be wise just to take the double. And I think that’s what Keegan Maria is. I think he is one of the safest prospects in this class. Very highly intelligent on the court, off the court. I don’t think he is going to be worried about, oh, I’m, I’m going to come in. I have the number one option.
[00:23:39] I don’t see that. I think he’s a really great team guy. I mean, I do. I think he’s going to set the world on fire. No, but I don’t think he’s going to bust either. And I think when you’re picking, you know, you, you did that when we were talking about potentially having like the 10th overall pick, like you threw out a stat, like it’s very rare that the 10th overall pick like ever hits, [00:24:00] you can get.
[00:24:01] That can be damn salt. If you can get the guy that like 10 years leak as a, as a fifth starter. Okay. Like it’s not ideal, but it’s not like Zach Collins and Caleb Swan again, bad,
[00:24:12] Dillon Sage: good job. But I still don’t think he’s that. Uh, I feel like he’s still very underwhelming as a prospect. Like I don’t usually go, I don’t delay.
[00:24:22] Th a recording of this podcast, so I can look at more tapes so I can see, is it just like underwhelmed at that particular game or is it underwhelming as a prospect? Um, but again, defense, I don’t really have that many worries about it, except the mobility. And then the. The verticality. I think that he is a good vertical, like he understands verticality.
[00:24:45] I just don’t know if he’s going to get Virta Cole to, uh, make some of those stops that Roy Rogers employees in the defense. So it’s, it’s a difficult one for me to, to be. Uh, excited [00:25:00] about, but that, I mean, not every vert person’s Jayden Ivy, not every, person’s a Paulo, not everyone’s Chet. So again, like, you know, it, I think that he is a very dominant player and I think that his dominance in the college game is going to protect his value.
[00:25:21] But if I was in the, uh, in the draft. For the blazers picking and he was on the board. I would, uh, I would, uh, tell, uh, the GM, we probably shouldn’t use
[00:25:34] Dustin: the pick on him. I mean, who, who are you taking if all of your shooting guards are off the board, all of your bigs are off. Like I just, I don’t see some more.
[00:25:46] Okay. I think we would disagree there. I think
[00:25:49] Dillon Sage: so Johnny Davis is off the board.
[00:25:51] Dustin: Yeah. All the good shooting guards are off the board.
[00:25:54] Dillon Sage: Okay. I take benefit Benedict Matheran over him. And, you know, I didn’t have any
[00:25:58] Dustin: matter is an absolute [00:26:00] stud. Yeah.
[00:26:00] Dillon Sage: You know, I didn’t, it wasn’t the biggest fan of him. So I would take Easton.
[00:26:04] I would take, uh, Ojai. If we did a draft board, now he would, he and Walker, Kessler would fight for the bottom. And honestly, I might take Walker cause I believe in the shot, blocking in the feet
[00:26:18] Dustin: and the hands. Okay. It is what it is. Yeah. Like my, my bottom, like my 50% comp, I think he’s Dante Cunningham at the worst.
[00:26:31] Don’t say Cunningham played damn near 10 years in the league. He got a
[00:26:34] Dillon Sage: few contracts out of new
[00:26:35] Dustin: Orleans. Great reliable shooter. Obviously people set him up. Um, that’s where I have him as my absolute floor.
[00:26:46] Dillon Sage: I, I might not feel good about this one, but I see him as Frank Kaminsky. Like the, the, I don’t know if we’ll have the shot that Frank does, but like, he’s not gonna kill you and is [00:27:00] going to get some rotation minutes.
[00:27:02] And then they both dominated in college. I don’t, I feel much better about my 75th percentile than my 50th or honors.
[00:27:13] ’cause th the, the handle is very, it is not good. He is a magnificent rebounder for a size. The touch on the Jumpshot can be really wild in terms of the misses and makes it, he doesn’t, he doesn’t Ms. Long or short. He misses wide too. So it kind of, it kind of was like, when I was watching him, I was like, am I watching.
[00:27:38] Dustin: Who also with a lottery back? Yes. Yes. He played what, 12 years in the league, at least and counting.
[00:27:46] Dillon Sage: I mean, yeah, underwhelming, uh, was an underwhelming 10 plus years. Like
[00:27:54] Dustin: I would, I disagree. I mean, you start for a Western conference final scene like that. [00:28:00] Look at that draft, that draft was nothing to write home about.
[00:28:02] So they, those are these and pick up the time. So I think there’s a lot to be said for filling out your roster with long versatile players who can defend it in an open shot. Like I think there’s always a spot for those type of players in the league. You can’t always draft Dame. You just can’t. That whoever creates people, whatever you believe in, they only created so many Dames, so many LeBron’s like you, you need, you need others to fill those roles.
[00:28:34] Dillon Sage: I know that I said he reminds me of fruit and he was like, he was a lottery pick for the Clippers, but they don’t want to use my first, over my first blazers pick on gigging
[00:28:42] Dustin: Marie. Okay. I mean, I can agree with that. Like there are other players I have had on the board. I’m just, I don’t think he’s as bad as, as your saying.
[00:28:50] I think the middle of the road. I think you’re looking at like Harrison Barnes. Antawn Jamison. Whew.
[00:28:57] Dillon Sage: Yeah. Bruh [00:29:00]
[00:29:00] Dustin: Harrison Barnes. Good defender catching. It was high IQ needs others to set him up. That’s Keegan Marie. He’s not going to make an all-star team as the middle of the road, but he’s going to be a vital piece of a good team, like bad.
[00:29:15] I think that’s what you’re getting. Here’s some bonuses. This is your 75th
[00:29:19] Dillon Sage: percentile. Yeah, I had trouble. I had trouble with the a 99, but I would just steal Harrison Barnes and put them up. That’s what I think is often top end outcome would be, I mean,
[00:29:31] Dustin: Harrison Barnes was also the seventh pick of the draft.
[00:29:34] He also needs others to set him up and he struggles creating forums. But he’s not the fastest, but he’s just smart. I mean, I, I just, I see a lot of intelligence when I, when I watch Keegan, I think the floor is so high. I think he’s one of the safest prospects. I think the ceiling is one of the lower tiers in this draft, but if you, if [00:30:00] you do get two picks, I don’t think there’s a, it’s not a bad idea to swing for the fences on one, and then make sure you hit your double on the other.
[00:30:10] Like, I think that that gives you a little, uh, you know, risk reward there. Like, I don’t think you need to swing for the fences twice and I don’t think you need to play it safe twice. Obviously go best player available, but a good mixture of, you know, boom or bust is pretty good, especially with a really young, uh, roster.
[00:30:28] Uh, who is your 99th comparison?
[00:30:29] Dillon Sage: Yeah, we’re still hit yours and say Harrison Barnes. I, I had, I had Aaron Gordon because. Uh, a less athletic Aaron Gordon, because they’re both have that the potential shot. Like I know that, uh, fans and people on Twitter think that Aaron Gordon is a actual shooter when he’s just a potential shooter.
[00:30:50] So I kind of thought of, uh, of air, uh, less athletic Aaron Gordon, but I honestly like your Harrison Barnes comp a little bit more like the [00:31:00] powerful word version of Harrison Barnes is a better. Comp then my unathletic, Aaron Gordon.
[00:31:09] Dustin: Uh, my 99, um, I see it like, this is why I say, I don’t think the ceiling is super high because I don’t think there’s much more higher for him to go in Harrison Barnes.
[00:31:17] And I think fringe all-star is what he tops out at. Uh, and I, and I did, I was watching a scouting video and this comparison came up and I was like, this makes a lot of sense. So he is able to just create maybe one or two moves to score for himself. I think he’s like Tobias Harris.
[00:31:33] Dillon Sage: That’s actually a really good comp because when I watched the Iowa state Iowa, He disappeared for a long periods of time.
[00:31:42] And if you looked at Tobias’s Harris’s game log, there’s a lot of like games where he’s engaged and then a lot of games where he’s not engaged. So I CA I get that. And I think like the mentality is very similar. Let’s be real about this Iowa team. If they’re going to go anywhere they need [00:32:00] Keegan to do really well.
[00:32:01] And in certain games, he just, it isn’t there. So I kind of get the disappearing act of Tobias Harris. And like, if you look at his statistics now that James Harden’s there, it’s literally nothing now because, uh, Carrie’s max. He’s doing well. And Joel him. Uh, MVP candidate. So I actually do I understand the Tobias comp, I just don’t think his ceiling is that,
[00:32:29] Dustin: but if you can draft Harrison Barnes and the lottery, I think you do it every time.
[00:32:34] Dillon Sage: If we have two picks and use the second. Sure. I just don’t think he’ll be there at, at,
[00:32:40] Dustin: at 11 or whatever it may be. And that’s totally fine. Like honestly, if Portland ends up with like seven and 10 and you get your shooting guard itself. And I was telling you this earlier, let’s say San Antonio, uh, calls up and says, Hey, we’ll give you 18 and 21 intersect.
[00:32:59] Yeah, I would [00:33:00] do that. Like, I’m not in love with the idea of Marie. I don’t just load it like, like you do.
[00:33:07] Dillon Sage: I don’t blow that. I’m just uninspired by his game. But yes, I would like if, if trading him to San Antonio, I think, I think San Antonio would be a really good spot for him. I think Ferrano would be a really good spot for him.
[00:33:21] I think Atlanta would be a really good spot for him, but if it’s San Antonio is willing to give us those two first round picks. Hello, Walker, Kessler, and Ojai.
[00:33:33] Dustin: Yeah. I mean, or if you know another team, you know, offers, we moved down three or four or five spots and we get their first round pick next year, like to gather assets, like if Keegan Murray’s like, how do I put this, this, this the best.
[00:33:49] Let’s say you go into a restaurant and you’re like, I really am like jonesing for a strawberry shake. I’m like, sorry. We’re all out. But we have vanilla. Oh, okay. Like it satisfies you with,
[00:33:59] Dillon Sage: that was [00:34:00] a great flavor and I would keep your
[00:34:04] Dustin: soda pop, bruh. It’s not strawberry. So you like, you’re like, oh, it’s okay.
[00:34:08] Like you’re not buying. But you’re not like super stoked, cause that’s really what you wanted. Uh, that’s how I feel about Keegan Murray. There, there are a lot of prospects in this draft. I would be through the moon.
[00:34:17] Dillon Sage: I was worried that you were in like really into him and me not being into him very much.
[00:34:23] So it’s going to be like our biggest disagreement of the, of the, the draft cycle breasts. Still think it’s Jayden Duran.
[00:34:31] Dustin: Um, no, I think we disagree the most on.
[00:34:35] Dillon Sage: Okay. That that is a very fair point. Okay. Before we end this podcast, we witnessed a very, very, very entertaining college basketball game between Purdue and Wisconsin did IVs struggles in the first half.
[00:34:52] Where are you at all? And did Johnny Davis his inability to create separation against [00:35:00] college defenders scare you.
[00:35:04] Dustin: No. When I watched games, like I can’t get too high and I can’t get too low. Right. Like I learned my lesson. Oh six, Portland’s got a lottery pick. I fall in love in March madness. Tyrus Thomas is blocking the shit out all little Marcus Aldridge.
[00:35:20] He’s dunking on people. I’m like, yeah, he’s going to do that in the week. Portland drafts him and then train them for LaMarcus. And like, what the fuck are you guys doing? Like, I was just in love and then fast forward a couple of years. Like, okay. There’s James harden. Like I know we can’t get it, get that pick, but I was like James harden, like I’ve seen him play at ASU, watched a lot of duct games, completely falls asleep in the tournament.
[00:35:42] I’m like, Ooh, I’m kind of soured on this guy. Like what’s, what’s going on here. You can never get. I think too, um, emotional one way or another watching college basketball, I’ve learned it’s such a completely different game. There are [00:36:00] so few prospects just prospects throughout the course of time that just make it look so effortless.
[00:36:07] Even, even Kevin Duran, uh, had his struggles at, at Texas cause he played on a pretty good. Team. Um, so, so no, I mean, that was a big game. Uh, it was for the big 10 championship, essentially. Like it was a raucous environment. I think Jayden Ivy played in his head a little bit, but,
[00:36:26] Dillon Sage: and the first half you couldn’t, I don’t think anybody was really saying that that was a good app.
[00:36:31] The second applicant.
[00:36:33] Dustin: Yes, of course it was a good half. Like I was looking at his box score and was like, he ends up with 22 points, shoots over 50% from the field and got to the line nine times. Um, that’s a damn good line and he played pretty terrible up to his standards, um, for, for that game. So it’s just.
[00:36:53] Pretty pleased a different style. They’ve got big cars. They’re trying to dump it in. They’re also trying to figure out if Jayden Ivy is going to be their lead ball handler or not. [00:37:00] That’s something that Arizona has made the switch. Instead of letting her Krista run the show, they put the ball in Madelyn’s hands to make.
[00:37:07] Absolutely unstoppable. And in the process, Mathern has showcased incredible play-making ability. It’s all about the coach. It’s all about this game. It’s all about the strategy and your opponent. Like there are different objectives and college than there are at the professional level. Now, if Johnny or Jayden has a really bad tournament, or maybe they have a bad, big 10 tournament, and then it lingers into the, the big dance, then you might have some questions.
[00:37:35] Even then I always like to go to the combine and see maybe how they do their, how they, you know, do an individual workouts. Um, even Jabari Smith has had moments where you’re like this guy’s really the number one pick, but you also have to look who are the guards he is playing with. You know, that every team in the sec is keyed in on.
[00:37:55] And when Albert actually gives him the ball and let them operate, he does special things that [00:38:00] takeover at Mississippi state was unbelievable. I mean, that’s all you needed to see. That’s number one, pick signed, sealed, and delivered. So when you have a talented player at the collegiate level, just give them the ball coaches and let them fucking operate.
[00:38:13] I don’t care if they’re a five, a 4, 3, 2, or one. Good things are gonna happen. And more times than not, you’re going to see a prospect start to shine, but when they’re getting the ball, like every fifth or sixth possession, it’s really hard to get into a rhythm, especially in a high intensity, high energy game, such as Wisconsin and Purdue, that you’re going to get it like, oh shit.
[00:38:35] Like I gotta make my move now instead of just like letting the game come to you so long, answer short. No, I’m not deterred. I think both are still. Amazing prospects and I would be thrilled to Portland landed either. Oh yeah, absolutely.
[00:38:49] Dillon Sage: Um, the, the lack of poppiness in, in, in Johnny’s game is a little bit worrisome, but at the end of the day, he’s still a [00:39:00] really, really awesome prospect.
[00:39:02] So, uh, nitpicking on his, uh, Burstein is an ability to create space is, is a little, uh,
[00:39:09] Dustin: and I guess maybe that’s where. I don’t worry as much because I don’t see him as a newborn option. I see him like clay Thompson. Greatest. He is, is not a number one. Option. Clay is so good because he plays alongside Steph.
[00:39:22] What does Portland have? Fantastic point guard play Johnny’s life is going to be so much easier. Alongside of, of Dame or ant, and then you got NERC controlling the paint. So I guess when I’m looking at a prospect, it’s like, I don’t think Davis is necessarily the best to guard, but he would be a really good fit.
[00:39:40] And like, how is, how is he going to, yeah. So I don’t think he’s going to be able to take over a game, um, necessarily with the ball in his hands. Like an Ivy can. Can-do like, he shows that burst, but. You can really see like, oh, if he had another player of similar gravity to pull the defense away from him.
[00:39:56] Cause like he watched these college games that it’s just like, they’re packed like [00:40:00] sardines in that paint and they don’t want you to operate. So that’s kind of where I am with Davis. I think I like Davis more than most draft pro pundents just because they may like, look like, oh, can this guy be a number one?
[00:40:13] Can this guy do this, that and that? Or I’m like, how does the fit in with the blazers? How can he make us a better team? I mean, you can even go back to your guy, Desmond Bain. Like he may not be a number one, but he fits in so well with that Memphis Grizzlies team. And because he was in that situation, he’s flourishing.
[00:40:32] And now if you do a redraft easily, go on the top 10
[00:40:39] quick, before we sign off, as we record it’s early March, the madness is getting ready to begin. Give me a prospect that you’re most excited to watch and learn more about in their conference tournaments, in the NCAA tournament. And give me a prospect that you just would be terrified that Portland drafts you’ve
[00:40:59] Dillon Sage: had more [00:41:00] experience with Benedict math.
[00:41:00] And I need to have my time with him because I was, we were both equally harsh. I think I might’ve been a little bit more harsh at the time. So I think I need to have like, Hopefully Arizona goes on a big, uh, PAC 12 run, and I can have my moments with him to just experience what he is as a prospect. That’s the ball dominant player.
[00:41:24] Um, so I am absolutely willing and excited to watch him develop in these high leverage spots. I’m a player I don’t want to see. Uh, I don’t want to see Memphis play and I don’t want to see Iowa anymore. So I guess Jayden, I J Jalen Duran and, uh, uh, Keegan Murray would probably be my top two. I don’t want to see when I see Memphis on my YouTube PBM, just like.
[00:41:52] Nah, I’m watching king of the hill. Again, I don’t need to, I only need to put myself through watching another Memphis game. And then [00:42:00] I think I was boring. Th they, they play at a very fast pace and it’s frenetic and that’s cool, but it’s kind of a boring brand of basketball that doesn’t really excite me.
[00:42:10] So the same question right back at you, who are you most excited to see and who, who do you, uh, not want to see.
[00:42:19] Dustin: I mean, I think I’m just excited to continue to watch the, the shooting guard prospects. I think it’s probably the best shooting guard class that I can remember following. You’ve got Ivy from Purdue produced a fun team to watch Davis from Wisconsin Mather in from Arizona.
[00:42:38] Uh, if you look all the way down, you’ve got, uh, Kansas who has, I think if you. And I believe this will be our next feature Friday, uh, Ojai, uh, bodgie from, uh, KTU actually trained with, with Dame and his, uh, trainer. So Beckner, uh, this past summer older guy, but could still probably come in and contribute [00:43:00] right away.
[00:43:00] Dillon Sage: Uh, one thing about the age thing that I don’t think either of us mentioned Keegan is a very old sophomore.
[00:43:06] Dustin: Yeah, he did the post-grad
[00:43:08] Dillon Sage: year. Yeah. So, I mean, I think that. Teams are going to use the age factor on OSHA Ojai. We probably should. If like, if you believe in the age in development principle, that’s going around.
[00:43:23] I mean, Keegan probably should be talked about with Ojai.
[00:43:29] Dustin: Yeah. So I, I, I’m just really excited to watch the, those low shooting guards right now. Like I’m not sold on any. Uh, I, I just I’ll watch more of them. I felt like I’ve watched a ton of duke basketball. Um, like if we got the third pick yeah. Maybe you have to take Paolo, but I I’m just, I’m not sold like again, I think he’s going to be a good player, but like it’s, it’s not like.
[00:43:56] I want, or I think you can win around. So I just, [00:44:00] I need to see more, like you have to play well against Syracuse, but Syracuse is kind of garbage. Like how do they play against Carolina? Like Thursday or excuse me, Saturday at three coach Kay’s last game. Like who comes to show out? Like I need, I need to see more from AGA Griffin as well.
[00:44:16] I may not get to see it because all he does is catch and shoot at duke. They don’t, they don’t run. You’re like you hate watching, uh, Memphis play. I hate watching duke play basketball. There’s too much. There’s too much talent for that team to play. Like it’s 1987. I mean, they, they need to run a pick and roll, but they need to figure out a way to get power who is a fantastic offensive weapon.
[00:44:39] Like I want to see more, like, I felt like he showed more case or showcase more early on in the season. Um, yeah. And in terms of like, who I’d be terrified to draft right now, I think you look at. I’m not saying I would be against it, but right now I’d be terrified. The one way players who are raw, [00:45:00] are you looking at Kendall brown from Baylor?
[00:45:02] Uh, Jalen Durran from Memphis, Terry ease-in from LSU. Um, those are guys who could potentially be really solid players. Uh, really game-changing defenders, but. I I’m. I think it’s really like a roulette role with like those three players. If they hit like a 50, 50, I don’t know if I get a go for that with so many good
[00:45:25] Dillon Sage: hits with the Portland truck.
[00:45:27] I just don’t like, if, if Steve Kerr was on the trailblazers, then boom, I think he’s a good, he would be a very good prospect, but the fact that brown needs the free flowing offense to really hit his value. And that will not happen with Chauncey Billups as a head coach. So I just don’t think that he is even in the consideration of a Blazer’s first round pick because of.
[00:45:54] I think that’d be a humongous waste of a first round pick picking somebody that needs to be in a fully [00:46:00] free flowing off offense and put them in the corner. Because if you watch that shot, it is it’s it’s Walker, Kessler slow.
[00:46:09] Dustin: And, uh, obviously I’m not terrified, but I want to see more from chip. Um, There was a minute there where he was making a run for number one on my board, and then kind of watched him and Gonzaga get bullied at St.
[00:46:23] Mary’s equal. He’s only going to play against tougher competition in the dance. Like I would love, I mean, Gonzaga is going to be one seat, but like, I’m going to watch every Gonzaga game. Who does he get matched up with? Are they going to get physical with him? Um, how does he respond to that? How does Gonzaga get him the ball?
[00:46:40] Because like, he is a unicorn. He has all of that talent. And if he gets like, if you miss a shot, that’s not going to deter me, but it’s like, if he’s getting out muscled and it’s impacting his game, that’s where you’re like, Okay. Like how much weight can you put on your frame? And, and like, how quick can it get done?
[00:46:58] Because that becomes the [00:47:00] overarching factor in, in drafting it. But if he gets like bumped off the spot and still is able to keep his balance, then you feel like, okay, like I can work with that, but you can’t see him just get just physically manhandled. Um, he is, I still think one of the most unique prospects we’ve we’ve ever seen and I would be totally fine with Portland on
[00:47:19] Dillon Sage: the same tier level is Jabari.
[00:47:21] After the St Mary’s game or did that, that game sway you from the tier ones of this class? I think he’s still,
[00:47:27] Dustin: like, if you have the number one pick, like if Portland took chat, I would be okay with it. I’m clearly all in, on Jabari Smith. So I think Jabbar is the best prospect. Um, so I think Jabari’s maybe like one a and then check in a couple.
[00:47:40] Others could be in like maybe chats one B um, what I saw. So you’ve got it. It’s weird. Like, I don’t try to overreact too much, but what I saw. From St Mary’s and then what I saw when opera actually gave Jabari the ball and just the takeover mode that he was able to do, like, yeah, it’s great. When you see a [00:48:00] prospect, you know, hit a pick and pop or, you know, go coast to coast as a six, 10 guy, but like, There were two games, the Tennessee game, they ended up losing, but Jabari brought them back.
[00:48:08] I mean, just the jump shooting is outrageous and then it gets Mississippi state on the road. The bulldogs they’ve regained the lead. I mean, it’s the traditional college atmosphere. A ton of LSU fans may made the, or L now Auburn fans made. And he just goes God mode. And then he had the move where he took them baseline finished with the dunk.
[00:48:29] Like that’s what you want to see like that, that is true. Flashes of brilliance when the pressure is really on. Like, I think Jabari’s clearly my number one, but. It is also a game changing type of prospect site. Then those
[00:48:46] Dillon Sage: two have developed that they are a tier, at least for me, they are a tier above the Paulo, Ivy 8, 8, 8 for me.
[00:48:56] So I think those are the top five. And [00:49:00] the last three that I mentioned are kick two. And then I think there’s the tier three tier four.
[00:49:07] Dustin: I think Paula is not in my top five
[00:49:09] Dillon Sage: Bari. I V Paulo AAJ.
[00:49:15] Dustin: Okay. My top five Jabari Chet. And then I think that right now they’re tied for me. I’ve got Ivy Davis and Maddie.
[00:49:29] Damn watch. I’m telling you Arizona was on ESPN today. Uh, I’ve been watching almost every Arizona game. I can like his performance against USC, um, with the conference championship on the line, just took over the game. Uh, and he’s engaged defensively now. Like that was your big question. Uh, ever since they gave him more responsibilities, like I was really kind of cool, cool on him as well.
[00:49:55] Like I totally get that. What we saw against Illinois early in the season, [00:50:00] I was like, yeah, that’s an alright prospect. Like. Maybe later in the lottery he’s made the leap. I think he’s clear cut pack 12 player of the year. I mean, there’s a reason Arizona’s just running through, uh, the conference and I’ve got Paolo on the outside of six and again, important gets Palo.
[00:50:15] That’s fine. Like he’ll, he’ll play really well. I’ll get with, with Dame, but I just. I see something in these guards, like basketball is becoming a guard league. And I really like, uh, what those have, but I mean, like, that’s why it’s so important for Portland to get one of these picks. And we haven’t really even touched on, you know, shade and sharp.
[00:50:33] Like he’s kind of an unknown. I’ve been reading up about him. Like he kind of was a relatively unknown high school. Prospect goes to the peach jam, becomes the number one player in the. Reclassify. Uh, and then he’s not really playing it all, which is super weird, but then Calla Perry thinks he’s coming back.
[00:50:50] It’s just, it’s all strange, but you’re a 6, 6, 18 year old guard you’re projected to go to the top 10. You’re not going to spend a [00:51:00] damn second on the, on the Kentucky campus next year. So he’s like the true wildcard in this. Like if he stays in the draft. Portland could land him or it could push a better prospect down to Portland just because he keeps his name in there.
[00:51:13] So, uh, unfortunately we can’t really walk. There’s just nothing out there other than dunking high school highlights. And that just that’s nothing. So it’s really going to have to come down to. What you’re hearing from people who have inside information who get to see him at the combine at individual workouts.
[00:51:30] Um, one of the wild, the wildest stories that, that I can remember in indirect history, like it, it it’s somewhat rivals 2012 when Dion waiters was a six minute Syracuse and all of a sudden you’re hearing, oh, he has a, he has a promise to go first round. Oh, okay. I can see that he has a promise to go top 20 next week.
[00:51:52] Oh, he’s lottery. And it was like top five, top four. And he ends up going forward to Cleveland and he, he shuts down all these workouts. It [00:52:00] was the strangest, like how it all played out. Um, it’s not quite on this level with shade on sharp, but it’s pretty interesting that there’s just, there’s really nothing out there.
[00:52:13] And yet everyone’s like ESPN says, he’s the number one player in this draft class. So he’s going to be put up there. So, um, if you talk about like,
[00:52:24] Dillon Sage: I would not, if I was him, I would go in this trap. Cause he there’s no way he talks scoop scoop
[00:52:29] Dustin: Henderson will look at what happened to him on Bates. Yeah.
[00:52:33] Amani has
[00:52:34] Dillon Sage: some issues.
[00:52:35] Dustin: Okay. Well let’s but Armani Bates for all, since he was a freshmen. Oh, Amani Bates, top player in the class of 2022. Boom boom. All everyone’s always Wednesday, Amani Wednesday Mani draft. Like we got to get this guy reclassifies goes to Memphis. Now he’s, he’s mocked to go. Cause he’s drafted eligible next year.
[00:52:54] He’s projected to the second round pick. Like he hurt the hype and [00:53:00] sometimes the best thing a prospect can do is fool a franchise into saying, yeah, I I’m your guy, like I’ve got the hype. You can really believe in me. Uh, and you, and you you’re set for life, but now he can
[00:53:16] Dillon Sage: him having the athleticism of an injured Malcolm broad. It’s going to be some problematic shit.
[00:53:26] Dustin: And that’s why, and sharp is going to stay in the draft. If you asked me,
[00:53:31] Dillon Sage: I have unfortunately watched some G league at night scoops the person that you need to really care about because these other guys have some major issues in their unit.
[00:53:44] Dustin: I am glad that players can now take Damon likeness deals because I don’t want to watch any G league basketball.
[00:53:51] I’m sorry. Watching what’s new in Memphis is bad enough.
[00:53:55] Dillon Sage: I, well, don’t you think, uh, ed. It needs to take [00:54:00] advantage of these, these colleges deals now. Cause I don’t know how, uh, how long has NBA careers going to last with those type of movement skills? Like I’m hoping that he gets money from Canada and China and all that stuff now.
[00:54:14] Cause I don’t think that
[00:54:15] Dustin: he’s set. He can go play international and make a very nice career for himself.
[00:54:20] Dillon Sage: It’s the seven four, not the bulb on, uh, comps are pretty real because of the.
[00:54:28] Dustin: But yeah, you get one contract and leave, even if it’s a second round, you invest that wisely off to a good start.
[00:54:34] Dillon Sage: Okay. All right.
[00:54:36] Do you have anything to say about this traffic? Are we gonna take this off and, uh, and argue about ADJ versus.
[00:54:46] Dustin: Hmm. I mean, uh, stay tuned next Friday. We’ll be doing the, as I mentioned that the shooting guard from Kansas Ojai, uh, bodgie, uh, and then we’re probably gonna have some, some different content for you all. [00:55:00] Uh, there’s a couple of Baylor prospects. We’ll need to check out, do a deeper dive on Kendall brown.
[00:55:04] Uh, Jeremy Sochi. Um, and then after that, like we basically covered almost a lot of the lottery will then be like, maybe we’ll do a mock draft episode where we go just, just lottery. And then we’ll continue to like, have those throughout the year. Probably do a Stockwatch maybe going into the tournament who.
[00:55:24] Who we are looking for. Uh, who’s rising up our boards, who’s falling and why. Um, and then maybe just do some, some reactions to like, okay, like final four has happened. What if there are any prospects in there? Who can we talk about? So, um, it’s going to be really college focused, uh, through, through the end of March.
[00:55:43] And then we can start to look at, you know, some of these players from the G league. Obviously we’ll know more as it progresses as Portland than to continue losing, or are they going to win a game here or there, what is the pelicans going to do? Uh, we won’t really know, uh, what Pic’s, Portland’s going to happen until may, so that will really, [00:56:00] um, kind of provide our pathway that will lead the direction on where the future Friday slash you know, just draft content leads up to, but definitely, uh, a few mock drafts, um, Definitely some stock watches, you know, watch those tournaments.
[00:56:17] Um, it’s not the end all be all, but it gives you a good insight into what a player can be. .