[00:00:00] Dustin Hawes: all right, everybody. Welcome to the 286th edition of the holy backward podcast. I am Dustin here in rip city and I got my man
[00:00:17] Dillon Sage: say chill and live and direct it is. We’re just going to. It is national pan today, and it is my time to shine. So welcome to the best holiday of the year giant pan today. What is up, man?
[00:00:33] You don’t need to talk about these Baylor bears, the second best type of bears.
[00:00:39] Dustin Hawes: So you would rank Baylor bears behind Pandora’s. Is that what it
[00:00:42] Dillon Sage: is? Number one, balers.
[00:00:44] Dustin Hawes: That’s why I said you would rank the Baylor behind Panda bears.
[00:00:47] Dillon Sage: I guess. I can’t think of another.
[00:00:51] Dustin Hawes: I mean there’s black bears, brown bears, grizzly bears, polar bears.
[00:00:55] My favorite, uh, koala bears, which are adorable. I mean, bears just in general [00:01:00] are fantastic. All teary animal S here. Absolutely S here, animal, uh, quick, quick sidebar. When Olga and I went to Canada in 2017, um, it’s just wild because like, there’s just, don’t give a shit. And I love that about them. They’re just like crossing highways and like, everyone has like the utmost respect for them.
[00:01:21] Like you, you pause your car and if you see like a traffic jam, the bears are just crossing the road or they’re just like cuddling and rolling around on the side. It’s. It’s really cool. Like, it’s one thing that I obviously, I love my trip to Canada, but one thing I love is they have these like animal crossings because obviously there’s a lot of wild, uh, in, in Canada.
[00:01:43] So like, imagine like you’re going down an interstate, but there’s the. Nature bridges that just, they built a bridge, but they’ve actually taken the natural resources and put them on top. So it just looks like an extension. So it allows the, the animals to cross [00:02:00] safely and freely. And like, I’ll say one thing, I didn’t see one roadkill in, in our a week long trip to a trip to Canada.
[00:02:07] Like they, they do a really good job of protecting, uh, their wildlife. So that was a quick sidebar. But when you get me talking about bears, like I can. We can go on for this.
[00:02:19] Dillon Sage: Oh, I don’t think people are ready for the bear talk where we. Totally forget to talk about the trailblazers for an hour and a half, but yes, it is the national holiday pen today, uh, March 16th, uh, eight days before my birthday.
[00:02:40] I think if I did the math. So, uh, it was destined to be the Panda king of the Northwest,
[00:02:48] Dustin Hawes: and yes, you are right. We are going to be talking about two Baylor bear prospects. Uh, let’s kind of break this since it is a little bit different format. Traditionally we zone in [00:03:00] on one prospect and can spend the entirety of an episode on one.
[00:03:04] Uh, let’s kind of break it down a half and half, just so it’s easier for me to stay on track. I think it’s easier for the listener to kind of break it down. Let’s start first with, with Kendall brown. So Kendall brown is a small forward, um, from Baylor university, uh, six, eight, two hundred and five pounds, 18 years old.
[00:03:24] He will be 19 by the time of the draft. He was born in may from cottage Grove, Minnesota. He was a five-star. Recruit by rivals and the number 12 player overall, nationally. So a really big blue-chip prospect that Baylor brought in, in their recruiting class. Um, no accolades as of this recording, uh, the big 12 released all of their awards and, uh, he did not make any all-conference.
[00:03:52] Or earn any individual awards. He was the pre-season big 12 freshmen of the year, but that went to [00:04:00] another player. Um, Baylor is currently a number one seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament, which kicks off on Thursday. The regular season of record, they were 26 and six and ranked number four in both the AP and the coaches pool.
[00:04:16] I believe they won the regular season, a big 12 title. Um, his season stats, 10 points on 70% shooting from the free-throw line 59.5% shooting from the field 38.9% shooting from three. 4.9 rebounds, uh, 0.4 blocks 1.9 assists. One steel did that in 27.2 minutes per game on a player efficiency rating of 18.9 Sage.
[00:04:51] This is a prospect that, um, came in with. And when I was doing a lot of research on Kendall brown, something that [00:05:00] really stood out to me was how hyped he really was, especially towards the new year. I think a lot of people had him in their top five, top seven in this draft. Uh, he was putting up ridiculous numbers over the course of the first two months of the season.
[00:05:17] And, uh, when I was watching, you know, tape of him, there was a screen that popped up because this is when it was recorded. It was recorded right before the new year. So his stats at the end of this calendar year, he was at 13 points, uh, almost four boards. And. His three-point percentage was at 50% skilled gold percentage was a 71%.
[00:05:40] So the thing that jumped out at me was. His production significantly decreased as conference play kicked into high gear in, in the big 12, and just even, um, watching him play against Oregon. Uh, that’s a game that I definitely had my eye on. I’ve watched that game live. He really took [00:06:00] over that game late with his ability to play in the passing lanes, his ability to finish up the rim, uh, to run the brake and just to kind of overall be a pest in the menace.
[00:06:09] But then you watch him, uh, as the Baylor bears go into a big 12 play and he’s just not as involved. Uh that’s that’s my biggest takeaway is like, he, he just kind of almost like he disappears, like he doesn’t pop on, on tape. And I don’t know if that’s because his, his skill sets a little inconsistent. If Baylor is just going more guard heavy with a Kinjo at the point guard or.
[00:06:34] The, the defense is the scouting report kind of came out on you. You know, we’ve seen this with players in the NBA, you have a really great month. And then all of a sudden the scatter report comes out and it’s like, okay, how can you, uh, counter? And maybe he just hasn’t countered yet.
[00:06:49] Dillon Sage: So I, I watched the Oregon game yesterday just to, uh, remind myself about how he played.
[00:06:55] And it was kind of a. Oregon and teams in the early [00:07:00] season closed out on him as a shooter because he was shooting 50% from three. But if you look at the attempts taken, he didn’t, he never shot. So the, if the percentage is high, And you don’t shoot. It’s never going to be negatively affected if you don’t actually shoot the ball.
[00:07:17] So when Oregon or another team not in conference, went out, they were like 50% shooter. We got to close and then he would just attack the closeout and uses God-given athleticism to score. But as the, uh, the conference play happened, they were like, if Kendall shoots. It’s most likely missing. We don’t need to close out extremely hard on a non shooter.
[00:07:41] So then it made when need attack that close out, the team was ready for it. And then he just got walled up. I feel like the counter moves that he has to attack the close out. If they’re not just like running by him to try and stop the shot, his, his [00:08:00] dribble moves. They’re kind of. Robotic and not particularly good.
[00:08:04] So he gets walled up and then they have to pass it out. Um, but when you think of Kendall brown, uh, th th it was like an athletic for that can pass the ball and is really met at shooting. And, uh, On ball defense, but I think the biggest compliment that I can give him is that he is a really good passer for being a six, eight forward.
[00:08:29] Like there was a game early on the season. I forgot which one it was. And I apologize for that, but he would drive to the lane and just do a dump off pass over and over and over again. So that makes me know that, that the passing the vision. It’s real. It’s just, everything else is such a question mark with Kendall brown, like he never shoots the volumes, awful.
[00:08:54] His foot work when he’s attacking is really, really bad. And if you ever catch Kendall [00:09:00] brown shooting and it’s a mist, if you pitch his feet, it’s splayed out. Like it’s a, like, you’re about to crash while you’re skiing. There’s a lot of things. Just R upsetting about his game, but he’s one of the most talented players on the court whenever he’s there.
[00:09:16] It just, he never shows off that talent, but I mean like the passing and cutting is just really tremendous for a guy that has that as the app, the athletic gifts that he has, uh, offensively. What did you think about his offensive?
[00:09:36] Dustin Hawes: I mean, I think the volume of the three point attempts is the, the big key for me, like shooting one for two, every game from downtown is significantly different than going five for 10.
[00:09:47] Dillon Sage: If the Myers, remember when Myers letter had a 50%, three point percentage, because he only took two a game.
[00:09:55] Dustin Hawes: And then when we were discussing CGM a Columban, when he was going through his hot streaks, you were saying, he’s [00:10:00] doing this 40% on volume, three point shooting, doing something efficiently at a high volume is something that every, every person should strive for in whatever you know, that they do whatever industry they are, um, partaking in.
[00:10:15] But I would say. The, the pros are the jump shot. Doesn’t look broken. It’s not a bad form. However, when I’m watching a lot of these prospects, a lot of these prospects are only stand still shooters at this point, any sort of dribble, any sort of movement, and it’s not going to work out. And for him, I think he needs a quicker release.
[00:10:40] I think it’s a little bit slow. He’s almost a little uncertain and
[00:10:43] Dillon Sage: it’s just a shot. In the same
[00:10:46] Dustin Hawes: major shot hesitancy. And I think honestly, like the jump shot is going to be his major question, mark that will determine whether he gets a second contract and in the NBA. And so if you’re looking at this player in the [00:11:00] lottery, that’s, that’s a lot to risk for.
[00:11:04] I think a player who’s not tremendously elite at other aspects of the game. Like I think he’s incredibly raw. Like there are some brilliant moments where you’re like, okay, I can see this popping through. But when I look at players who are right now, one way players, and I think Kendall brown is a one-way player on the defensive end of the floor.
[00:11:25] I’m I have some
[00:11:26] Dillon Sage: opinions on that. Yeah, but
[00:11:28] Dustin Hawes: I think that if you’re, he’s not a zero way player, like I think he’s right now, it was just primarily a defender at, at, at, at Baylor. And so when I, when I look at prospects who are just one way. I’m okay. If they’re one way player, but they’re elite at that. And maybe they’re an upperclassmen because maybe they have some leadership skills that will translate and you can kind of see that they’ve been through the ringer.
[00:11:51] And I think that’s where you see players like J Crowder and dream on green. And you’re like, okay. Like th that’s why they fell to the second round. They’re older, but they have a specialty [00:12:00] and they were able to develop in the league under good systems. I don’t generally like drafting young players who are one way players at the moment.
[00:12:09] Like I need to see how they develop, especially if you’re taking them in, in the lottery. It just seems like there’s, there’s too much. Like you need to stay in school and refine your craft. I understand why he’s probably going to jump probe. If he struggles next year, he’s not allowed to pick. He made and fall out of the first round.
[00:12:28] Like, so you need to kind of go while your strike while the iron is hot. Um, I just think he’s incredibly. Raw offensively, like offensively, like most of this points come from the open court. He’s a heavy reliance on creation from others. Like he’s a fantastic lob threat. He finds that open space very well.
[00:12:49] Um, I think he moves well without the ball. I think he’ll be a little bit more effective if he plays with, um, other Playmakers and that they can look for him and really. [00:13:00] Uh, his overall performance, like they get the most out of him, right? Like, like you’ve seen when you play with cutters and you always have to keep the defense honest, like he, you don’t want to put them in a system where he is a three and D like, he’s just standing
[00:13:14] Dillon Sage: up and putting them at the corner makes him,
[00:13:16] Dustin Hawes: he can move around on the court.
[00:13:19] You need to let him have freedom of movement. Find that dunker spot and like, He is a willing passer. Can you make decisions in the, um, in the middle of the floor like that? That’s key. Like a lot of teams need that where you’re not scared of, oh God, I got the ball. What do I do with it? Like, can he be a true triple threat when he gets the ball in movement and in a little bit of space, I think that will really enhance his value at the next level.
[00:13:44] And then I think his jump shot, if he just even a league. Open open floor shooter. That’s where you’re going to start to see the value in it, Kendall brown. But, um,
[00:13:55] Dillon Sage: but you got to get him to shoot before you think of him as a league average shooter, like [00:14:00] the hesitancy to shoot is one of the biggest, like confusing factors to him.
[00:14:05] I mean, I’ve said it a bunch as we talk about prospects, it, Kendall Brown’s name comes up. I think he, every, every prospect is team dependent. Right? There’s not many LeBron James is who will be great in any system, in any team. But I think that he is the most team dependent player, because like you said, if you put them in the corner and I tell them not to move, he’s just going to struggle and it’s not going to go his way.
[00:14:35] Um, it ha it has to be a freedom of movements scheme. Like if you’re investing a first round pick and a player like. I think he’d be great in Toronto. I think he’d be great in Brooklyn. Like the, the teams with coaches that are creative that can get players moving in. Like I think once, if he [00:15:00] becomes a, a player on a team that has like Steph Curry or something, his cutting ability is going to be great.
[00:15:09] I remember when we got, uh, Derek Jones Jr. And I said that cutting create spacing. Well, it doesn’t when everybody stands still, but if it’s a freedom of move team, you see the skillset of athletic freak that can catch LOBs and is a, a good cutter, like offensively it he’s pigeonholed into, uh, a skillset that’s like.
[00:15:36] Attacks the he’s not in the box. He attacks like the perimeter of the box in terms of his skillset. So it’s, it’s tough to try and put them on a normal team.
[00:15:49] Dustin Hawes: And I think also at the moment, given his small frame, 205 pounds, I think what scares me about him as a prospect is he’s a twin. But he lacks [00:16:00] positional versatility.
[00:16:01] I think he’s not a good enough shooter to play the shooting guard. And I don’t think he’s strong enough to handle modern day NBA power forwards. I think right now he can only play the small forward until he bolts up. And so you’re picking a tweener who doesn’t have a lot of versatility on the floor.
[00:16:18] You just there’s. There’s too many question marks for me to feel comfortable taking a player like. In the top 10, top 15. Now, if you were to slip, you can maybe take a flyer on him. I think the situation is similar to Nassir little, right? He comes out in North Carolina. McDonald’s All-American five-star recruit.
[00:16:38] Just, just doesn’t show a lot, but the, you can tell the potentials there at 25, that was a value pick for Portland and you are okay. Putting him on your bench and just letting him develop for two, three years until you see it start to come to life. Now, if he doesn’t pan out, you know, the 25th pick traditionally, doesn’t really, you know, there’s not a high success rate there, so you can take a [00:17:00] bit of a gamble there.
[00:17:01] The higher you up are in the draft. There is more of an onus on hitting it out of the park and really getting a, at least a solid player. It’s really tough to take a risk. On a player with so many question marks, uh, that high and, and for that reason, um, I would probably steer clear of, of Kendall brown.
[00:17:19] Dillon Sage: So do you think it’s like a, uh, like we’re not intended Brown’s head?
[00:17:24] What do you think is the main catalyst for him not showing that he is the most talented player on the court. Basically in any college game that he’s in, he takes that back seat. Do you have any idea of why he isn’t as aggressive as you know, the most talented player normally would be on a team? He kind of has that been Simmons?
[00:17:51] Where Ben probably could be the best player in the NBA, but he chooses to not. Do you think it’s like a wiring issue or what [00:18:00] kind of issue do you think it is for, uh, Kendall brown, not performing at, you know, an, a level on most games?
[00:18:09] Dustin Hawes: Um, I, I don’t know if I would necessarily qualify as an issue per se, more than the school he decided to.
[00:18:15] Right. He goes to Baylor, they’re the defending national champions. They are a one seed, um, things are working for that collegiate program. So if he wants to continue getting his minutes, like, it’s almost like just don’t rock the boat. Like they’ve got senior leaders, uh, they’ve got good bigs that can defend, uh, one of their bigs, I believe was defensive player of the year in the big 12.
[00:18:34] Uh, they have a Kinjo who I mentioned, um, who was their lead guard, like in college, even less talented players are the leaders and they take over games like that. How that game is, and he’s bought into the Baylor system now, would you like to see more engaged defensively? Absolutely. But I think in terms of him taking more of a volume on the offense, I don’t know if that’s really in the best interest of [00:19:00] Scott drew and the Baylor.
[00:19:01] So I think it’s just a case of, he went to play for a new blue blood program and they are, their goal is to win a national championship. I don’t think they win a national championship, but Kendall brown is taking more share of the offense. So maybe if he goes and play that and LSU or university of Oregon or a team that’s kind of on the cusp of a, an NCA tournament team.
[00:19:25] And you may get a chance to shine. I mean, Ben Simmons kind of did that at LSU where he was a really good collegiate player, but his team was terrible. So I think that’s just why it’s really hard to evaluate collegiate prospects, the situations, the scheme, the strategies it’s it’s night and day from the MBA.
[00:19:43] So when you’re looking at a player who’s not really producing, you really have to be sold on what they can become. Not sold on what he can become. Uh, I think it’s just too risky for where he’s probably projected to go. Like I said, if he falls [00:20:00] sure. Snack him up anytime you can get a McDonald’s all American.
[00:20:03] Um, you go ahead and do it later in the draft, but to take them in the top 10, top 15, I think that’s a, I’m not ready to risk that for that biscuit. So
[00:20:13] let’s
[00:20:13] Dillon Sage: talk about as defense, um, you know, with the Baylor system it’s really, really aggressive and in early season, Especially in like the Oregon game that I watched, he was reading, passing lanes and sparking like fast breaks.
[00:20:28] But I think that there is a risk and reward for having such a high aggressive system, because once it got to big 12 play teams were just back cutting him. Cause he was so aggressive and. I, I feel like when you are a great team defender, your head’s always on a swivel, so you don’t get back cut. Like when you watch Robert Covington last year, when he was motivated, he was always having his head on that swivel to make [00:21:00] sure that when he’s digging in on help, he’s not getting back cut.
[00:21:04] But with Kendall, I feel like his vision is so straight in front of him is where he sees and he doesn’t have the peripheral. Zonal vision to like, oh, I got to check if I’m getting back, cut back, cut a lot this year. I
[00:21:22] Dustin Hawes: think the off-ball defense needs work. I think on-ball is where you can be more comfortable with him given his, his tools, his natural size and length and wingspan off ball and aggressiveness.
[00:21:34] I don’t even know if it’s overaggressive I saw some tape where he was just flat out lazy. It’s it’s
[00:21:39] Dillon Sage: it’s a very weird, like it’s either. Ultra ultra aggressive or Benedick Mathern passive early
[00:21:48] Dustin Hawes: season. And that’s why like all. If, if like madarin or Jade Nivea or whoever has elapsed on defense, even been careful, it’s like, okay, they’re shouldering the load offensively.
[00:21:59] [00:22:00] I can understand that you see that at the next level, when you’re a player that is not used very highly on offense. And you’re known for your defense, you should be locked in all the damn time. And that’s what really worries me about Kendall brown. It’s like, okay, you can’t be like locked. For 20, 25 minutes when you’re not taking a lot of usage offensively like that to me is more concerning than him not producing on the offensive end of the floor.
[00:22:26] Like if he was like really showing. All big 12 defense. I think you feel much more confident and like, okay, we can get him to shoot a little bit more. We can do this, but the, the lack of just oomph on defense really worries me for a player who his calling cards shouldn’t be as defensive as.
[00:22:45] Dillon Sage: As he’s become a bigger part of the scouting report.
[00:22:49] Like you’ve learned if he’s in that area, you probably shouldn’t pass it to him. So he can get into that passing lane. Like once [00:23:00] he’s on that scouting report, it’s he, he’s kind of easy to bring out or like to avoid his skillset. He’s very toolsy. He could be a great defender. He just. Hazards. I mean, my comps for him is really strange.
[00:23:21] Ditcher
[00:23:22] Dustin Hawes: for
[00:23:24] Dillon Sage: Bruce Brown on the nets. Okay. Because think about who the Brooklyn nets have on their team, they have KD Kyrie. Sometimes if your Harris is healthy, they have a lot of authentically skilled players. That made it. So Bruce Brown’s lack of shooting. Like he could be on the floor to contribute in other things.
[00:23:51] And that makes me think like if Kendall brown was a blazer, does Anthony Simons and Damian Lillard are, they often simply skilled enough [00:24:00] to make it so Kendall brown with his lack of shooting or lack of trying to shoot and you know, the, the, him working on the margins of the league could that work. And I don’t, I don’t think it could because I mean, The, the, the two people that I thought of for Kendall brown and they’re not the same size was Gary Payton, the second and Bruce Brown in terms of fit.
[00:24:25] And one team has KD and the other has Steph Curry. And the reason that those two can play minutes for those teams is because of the gifted, authentic. Brilliance of the other team and allowing a guy that isn’t a seven foot big to be in the dumper spot. So Bruce Brown or Gary Payton Jr. But they have to like it.
[00:24:50] They have to be on the right system. Cause you know what Bruce Brown did in Detroit, it wasn’t much, you know what Gary Payton did when he wasn’t on golden state. It’s [00:25:00] not much you need to have that team surrounding him. So, uh, what is your for, for Kendall?
[00:25:07] Dustin Hawes: I went in a different direction in terms of floor.
[00:25:10] I went for a lottery pick who doesn’t get a second contract. It’s kind of hard to find small Fords that don’t get second contracts in the recent past decade or so. So I, Mario who’s Onya in terms of a player who came in hyped, um, showed flashes, but never could put it together. He had the athleticism coming into Orlando, kind of bulked up and slowed down had Mo.
[00:25:34] Had lapses, not in the leak anymore. That’s where I think his floor is like he gets picked in the lottery and then you don’t see him in three, like after three years, he he’s done. Like, I think his floor is very, I don’t think he has a high floor at all. And that’s another thing that kind of scares me.
[00:25:50] Okay. Uh,
[00:25:52] Dillon Sage: remember this question? With his most likely outcome, but I think is like 75th percentile is [00:26:00] Aaron Gordon, the athletic newness. I don’t know if Kendall brown at his peak is as athletic as Orlando, Aaron Gordon, but the skillset is kind of the same. Like they have decent passing, they have good athleticism.
[00:26:19] They’re both pretty scared of shooting when. There’s better players on the floor. Does the 90% athletic, uh, gifted Aaron Gordon gets you ready for, you know, giving him that $15 million contract that he’s been asking for
[00:26:39] Dustin Hawes: two inches shorter too. I mean, and,
[00:26:42] Dillon Sage: and he doesn’t have the, he doesn’t have that, like the Supreme athleticism, but prime Aaron Gordon had, he just doesn’t have it.
[00:26:50] He’s really athletic, but. Gordon at his peak of like health and, you know, new legs was a freak. I [00:27:00] don’t think Kendall would be a freak. He’s really athletic.
[00:27:04] Dustin Hawes: I think you’re higher on Kendall ground than I am, which is a surprising, um, my, my, I think that as soon as I saw him play, I think he’s Derek Jones Jr.
[00:27:13] Really well moving without the ball, a lot threat. You’re going to want to play him in the open floor. You don’t want him shooting. I mean, you just do not want him to shoot the basketball. Very, very limited offensive player. Um, kind of on the thinner side of the smaller forwards. So again, might be able to guard twos or threes, but you don’t want him playing in the front core in terms of the four to five.
[00:27:37] Um, I just, Matt might get a second contract, but, um, I think maybe the mid-level is where he maxes out at, in terms of the most likely outcome.
[00:27:49] Dillon Sage: I mean, like if he has the 99 he’s equal dollars, just because of the passing chops. But man, I, I don’t re in two K there’s like the boom percentage, the [00:28:00] bus percentage in the normalized, like the normal percentage.
[00:28:03] I think that his most likely outcome is the lowest end of uh, outcomes for Kendall. Like if I would probably put 60% of that he’s Bruce and then like 20, 25, like it, the most likely outcome is that he’s on Bruce Brown in the most optimized lineup or team construction ever.
[00:28:28] Dustin Hawes: Yeah. I think my 99th was, was Gerald Wallace.
[00:28:31] Uh, Charlotte Bobcat’s Gerald wallets, where you probably makes one all-star team, maybe two, um, really uses that athleticism to become a pest, a menace defensively, and can, can be respectable at times from downtown. Like I just don’t ever think he’s going to be, um, that. That knocked down shooter that a lot of teams are looking for in the league.
[00:28:56] But, uh, we, we spoke about half-hour on Kendall brown, [00:29:00] let’s pivot and talk about his teammate, uh, Jeremy, so Han, uh, small forward power forward, six, nine, two hundred and thirty pounds. Um, Right now we’ll be 19 by the time the draft takes place, uh, from Poland, uh, hometown is in the UK four-star player by rivals, uh, played for the Polish men’s national team at Euro basket 22 qualifications.
[00:29:26] Um, I think he played in Germany last year as, as well. Um, he was the big 12, six man of the year. This year. Uh, his season average is, uh, he comes off of the bench. So we only gets 24.8 minutes per game. Average is 8.8 points on 47.9% from the field 57.5 from the foul line 29.2 from three, uh, pulls down 6.2 boards.
[00:29:54] Uh, Point seven blocks, 1.7 assists 1.3 steals. [00:30:00] And it does that at a player efficiency rating of 19.4. Um, this is a prospect that I think is slowly starting to pass Kendall brown in a lot of the mock drafts and in big board rankings. Um, Why is that
[00:30:16] Dillon Sage: stage? I think he’s an incredibly smart, defensive wing that if I it’s hard to really believe in the shooting, but if you believe in the shooting, That the,
[00:30:27] Dustin Hawes: the, everything.
[00:30:29] Dillon Sage: Yeah, I, it’s tough because like, I believe in the defense and the intelligence, like when he plays there is that intelligence that he isn’t the most athletic dude in the world, but he knows how to rotate, to be in the right position and uses verticality to make them shoot over a high hands. And. I mean that, that athleticism is very, it’s pretty low.
[00:30:54] So being smart makes it so that he being smart is the [00:31:00] reason that he’s a good defender. Um, the one thing I will say is I watched that Oregon game and there was a time where an Oregon. Attacked him on a closeout and he drove and then as the Oregon defense was sucked up, he passed out to a Baylor shooter.
[00:31:16] So I believe in the decision-making as well. Like, Hey, here’s the thing about, uh, the blazers. We really haven’t had a powerful word in Dame’s era to be a good decision maker. really wasn’t that? I mean, the guys, Zach Holland really wasn’t that when Marcus was, but you know, like that was early Dame. Like we haven’t had a power for decision-maker in a really long time.
[00:31:44] Um, but I believe in the past, I believe in that, but I’m on.
[00:31:50] Dustin Hawes: It’s interesting because I went back and I watched some of his high school tape and he finishes at the rim much more fluidly. So I don’t know if he’s just holding it back, but he [00:32:00] definitely looked more athletic just a year ago. He has added 10 pounds of muscle.
[00:32:05] And one of the things that I noticed was how. It’s like he had more confidence, especially in the offensive game. Like he was pulling up for threes that, you know, the same form on the jump shots, kind of more of a, of a Slingshot standstill jumper, but he was shooting them more with ease, like much more confident.
[00:32:22] So I think
[00:32:22] Dillon Sage: he also has shot has a really bad shot. Head is hesitant.
[00:32:27] Dustin Hawes: I think he needs to a team that Terry Stotts would have been a fantastic coach for him. Let him go out there, make your mistakes. You have the green light shoot the ball. Like we need you to keep a defense, honest, like you need a coach that is going to believe in him and say, you can make this shot.
[00:32:44] You’re not going to be featured prominently on the offensive end of the floor, but you know, just, just work, work and work and work and. You can become an alpha community type of shooter league average get hot some nights. So I think like [00:33:00] brown, uh, the team fit is incredibly. The coach fit more important than coach fit is so important for Jeremy so hand.
[00:33:08] But when you look at him, it’s hard not to envision just an all world menace type of defender. Uh, he was measured with a seven foot wingspan, which is incredible. I think that one thing that gives him the nod over Kendall brown is his great positional versatility. I think he could see him at the three through the small ball five at the next level.
[00:33:31] He was able to put on those 10 pounds. I think there’s room for a little bit more and him to still keep his, his latter lateral ability, which I think he moves really well. Laterally, um, plays the passing lanes. Well, I think he is the ideal defensive player, uh, in, in the modern. Like he should be able to handle some perimeter switches in the pick and roll.
[00:33:52] There was a couple of times when he was getting beat, he needs to get a little bit lower in his stance. But the best thing is this off-ball defense. I [00:34:00] think the free safety potential, we, we were talking about Kendall brown and him having tunnel vision. So hands head is on a swivel. Like I think he has that free safety potential that you look for in the NBA for your, your off ball defender, just to, to make plays in the passing lane to cover up mistakes.
[00:34:17] Uh, it’s just it’s it’s tantalizing. And I think that’s why you see a lot of teams, like have him rising on their drop work. You could see him sneak into the top 10 because, uh, just look at whatever mobiley is doing, um, for Cleveland. And I’m not saying he’s having a monopoly, but I’m saying those defenders that can go inside and out really can throw a wrench into that.
[00:34:41] The pick and roll is the NBA bread and butter. If you throw a wrench into the. A lot of NBA teams do not have a counter. So just, I mean, you see what bam out of bio does for the Miami heat. You have dream on green Benson and those disruptors on defense are, I would say. As important or [00:35:00] maybe more than a lights out score like Steph Curry or Kevin Durant.
[00:35:03] Like those, those players, I feel like are more frequent than the disruptors on defense. So if you can get yourself one of those and you’re willing to take a chance, it could pay incredible dividends, uh, down the road, I feel like
[00:35:16] Dillon Sage: he’s used Simon. Jerry’s like what? Like a guy that’s lengthy that has, you know, defensive IQ that is versatile.
[00:35:27] He can switch. Of course like the, the shooting is going to be the swing factor, but. What? So, uh, what Jeremy is, is kind of like the Toronto Raptors ideal draft pick, when you really think about it, like he’s the lesser version of Scottie barns or,
[00:35:45] Dustin Hawes: you know, even O G O G coming out of Indiana, he had the, he had the knee injury, but it’s like shooting was the big question, mark.
[00:35:52] He, he found a shot and now he is one of the most, uh, I think revered players in the league and sought after types of defenders, because they’re [00:36:00] so, so rare. Like they
[00:36:01] Dillon Sage: get those. The percentile VTS,
[00:36:04] Dustin Hawes: hold on. His shooting and it paid off.
[00:36:09] Dillon Sage: Yeah. I, you know, like with Kendall, there was things that I could write about like strengths or weaknesses with, with Germany.
[00:36:17] It was just like, all right, this is what he is as a solid prospect. And like, there isn’t that much that I can write. Critique. He just does things right. And has a lot of abilities. And then, you know, some, some red flags about the shooting and then like the top tier athleticism, but he’s really like a, a safe, smart player.
[00:36:42] Dustin Hawes: And what’s interesting about the top tier athleticism is I was naming off players like Draymond and Ben Simmons. Neither of those players, I would say athleticism is. So definitely
[00:36:51] Dillon Sage: never, definitely not for
[00:36:53] Dustin Hawes: Dre. So you can still be a really good defender at the sleep without being. [00:37:00] Uh, an incredible athlete in one area that I think translates well and you could see him play, uh, in the post before.
[00:37:07] And five is, he’s a solid rebounder. Given his output comes off the bench. I think he pulls down what’d I say six over six boards, a game. You translate that to a per 36. So every 36 minutes, he’s at nine boards of game. Like, can you get nine boards from your phone? That’s really damn good, um, in, in the MBA.
[00:37:28] So that’s, I think another area that if you’re a draft evaluator, you can say, okay, that, that translates. We can, we can see the vision in drafting this player and where you can play him. Um, along your front line.
[00:37:43] Dillon Sage: Damn, I was looking at the ringer that you sent me and he’s the ninth player on the, the, uh, the board for the.
[00:37:51] I don’t know if he’s that high on my personal board, but I think he’s a very, uh, safe prospect in terms of like [00:38:00] he can fit any type of, uh, bill. Like whether it be a rebuild, like where the Portland trailblazers might be on with, you know, the question marks of Dame and ant, like he would be someone that.
[00:38:14] You can just stash there he’ll fit with the scheme or you put them on a team that’s trying to compete. He’ll fill that role and play good defense and let those star players on your team be the star players. And he’ll do the, uh, the dirty work for you.
[00:38:33] Dustin Hawes: What’s your floor for, for Jeremy Sohan?
[00:38:35] Dillon Sage: I think this might just be athletically.
[00:38:37] He reminds me of Kyle single. Like, they both do the dirty work. They aren’t the most athletic Kyle Singler had a much better shot, but I just think the way that they move it’s very similar to me.
[00:38:52] Dustin Hawes: At Rondae hall is Jefferson. Uh, Rondae was the B the PAC 12 defensive player of the year coming out of Arizona.
[00:38:58] Portland drafted him, [00:39:00] traded him on draft night for Mason Plumlee and pat ConEdison. But the defense was never the question it was. Can he shoot? He never was able to get that shot. And now he is out of the league. He was a, you know, slowly started out as a three and the lack of shooting moved him to the four and then he was playing five for the blazers, uh, last year.
[00:39:19] So if so, Han is not able to become, uh, even a respected shooter. I, he would have to be Ben Simmons level defensively to, to play. And I think that’s a lot to ask of a prospect’s. I think Benson’s is arguably one of the best permanent defenders, uh, that I’ve seen in my lifetime. So I think Rhonda is a solid floor where.
[00:39:42] You know, you take a gamble on a player for the one-way potential and just hope that they become average at best, um, shooting the basketball. What’s your, uh, most likely outcome.
[00:39:55] Dillon Sage: Maybe I’m just watched way too much Denver nuggets basketball recently, but I also think that [00:40:00] he could be an Aaron Gordon like player with, uh, the defensive versatility and, uh, definitely not the athleticism, but the, the, the way that he can affect.
[00:40:11] Uh, team defensively and blowing up plays. Aaron Gordon could do that as well. They both have the they’re both potential shooters, not that actual shooters. So maybe, maybe that’s just the, the go-to pump for a guy that’s good defensively. And maybe in theory could shoot.
[00:40:35] Dustin Hawes: If he becomes. An average leak shooter or slightly below average lead shooter.
[00:40:40] I think the, the most likely outcome comparison for me is as an alpha community, a position, I got that. Yeah, a guy who can defend the three and the four, you can slot him along the lines, um, can get hot from three can shoot you out of games as well. Um, Play-making comes and goes. It’s kind of a player where you like holding your breath [00:41:00] when they’re in the open court.
[00:41:00] Like, I don’t know what he’s going to do with it. Sometimes it’s great. Sometimes it’s disastrous, uh, but a player who is invaluable can play for 10 years in the league and be, you know, a fifth starter or coming off your bench, like those types of players are necessary. You look at Portland in their, their Western conference finals run.
[00:41:17] They don’t do that without players like that. And enemy new, um, doing the dirty work, playing the defense and letting others shine around them.
[00:41:26] Dillon Sage: Okay. I think that a germy has that playmate, the play-making chops that Alfred never could.
[00:41:34] Dustin Hawes: What’s your 99.
[00:41:39] Dillon Sage: Um, I’m trying to cheat and say like, I’m looking at the athletic article and I’m like, no, I don’t, I don’t believe that he’s dream on. I don’t believe that he’s been sending. I, uh, better Aaron gore. Like, I don’t know, like I’m not, I’m not ready to give Jeremy dream [00:42:00] under green comps because I feel like dream on green is one of the most specialized players ever.
[00:42:07] And we need to give him, uh, you know, like he’s one of the smartest guys ever. I don’t want to give him comps to players that I don’t believe. Are at his level. So honestly, I would say it’s just like a more, a better Aaron Gordon, I guess. Like I, I’m not I’m I’m I don’t have the balls to give him the Ben Simmons or the dream on green comp.
[00:42:30] So just a better, uh, uh, more efficient Aaron Gordon, uh, optimized Aaron Gordon. I don’t, I don’t want to give him that super elite calm.
[00:42:43] Dustin Hawes: It becomes a leak average shooter and he unlocks his play-making like truly unlocks his playmaking. He’s going to be the closest thing we’ve seen to Andre. Carolyn go.
[00:42:54] Dillon Sage: I am much I’ve dude.
[00:42:56] I thought you were going to say dream on green bro. And I, I was like, no, [00:43:00] I don’t believe that. I think AK 47 would be that that’s a great 99th percentile. I mean, you’re talking about that chance happening though.
[00:43:12] W w like we did with Kendall, like, what is the percentage chance that it’s the, the, the low mean middle and a high end? W what would you give the percentages?
[00:43:23] Dustin Hawes: It’s probably 65% buddies, uh, Alfred Camino. I think there’s probably 25%. Betty’s run the halls. Jefferson. I think there’s a 10% chance that you could get a hundred Carolyn goats type of player, a guy
[00:43:38] Dillon Sage: who’s going to fill up.
[00:43:40] To be completely real.
[00:43:42] Dustin Hawes: Yeah. I mean, he’s, he’s got the tools, um, cure Linka was a player who was five by, he was the original five-by-five guy. I mean, you’re looking at me on a blazer fans, you know, talk about batoon is five by five games Kirilenko was doing. As, as regular as regular could be. Yeah. Just filling up the [00:44:00] statutes.
[00:44:00] I mean, he was really guarding one through five now. So Hannah is able to unlock that type of versatility. CareLink was also initiating offense. He was pushing the ball up the floor. It’s really where I see just the off-ball defense, that the block shots that the free safety, uh, playing the passing lanes just.
[00:44:19] One of the smartest defenders I’ve I’ve seen just the ultimate disruptor. Really? I think cure lingo in today’s NBA would be maybe the most, like you have Yonis, but they’re like, how can I get my hands on Andre? Kirilenko like, I don’t
[00:44:33] Dillon Sage: think you have to unlock some athletic gifts. Like how much athletic boosts from his, his game does he need to see, to see that top end out?
[00:44:45] Dustin Hawes: I don’t know if it’s necessarily athleticism. I think it’s more one, the shooting, like he just has to be respectable. I think it’s just the handle, the handle in the decision making, like he’s got a high basketball intelligence. [00:45:00] Is he going to be able to have a handle it’s hard for six, nine guys to dribble the basketball, you bring it up high, you can get it picked.
[00:45:06] Can he tighten up the handle like that? That is a huge thing. And create for others. Like, I think that’s going to be much harder to do that. Then become a league average shooter. So can’t, can he do that? That’s that’s that’s the big question mark for me. And I think to do,
[00:45:24] Dillon Sage: I don’t know if you realized it, but I use that comp alpha Rukmini for Keegan Marie, how much different of a prospect is germy to a Keegan?
[00:45:37] I think they’re night
[00:45:37] Dustin Hawes: and day
[00:45:38] Dillon Sage: really.
[00:45:43] Dustin Hawes: One, you have to look at the draft age. I think there’s a three year. Age gap. I think he can. Marie’s an MBA ready shooter. I think right now, like you could put him in there and he could be a three and D player. Like you can stand them in at the very least you can stand him in the corner and he’s going to give you buckets.
[00:45:59] I [00:46:00] think he’s got a better shot making ability, although I will say when I’ve watched, uh, so Han he, he does this, this turnaround fadeaway, and he shoots like, he has a
[00:46:09] Dillon Sage: surprisingly high amount of self-creation like, if you watch a full Baylor game, two plays where it’s like.
[00:46:16] Dustin Hawes: So it’s just like, how do you unlock that?
[00:46:19] Like, I don’t think Keegan is as athletic. Um, He has flashes where he can, he can, you know, you know, jam at home, but I don’t think he’s as nimble on his feet as so hand, I think. Uh, so hands look got a little more length on him. Um, I just, I think Murray’s more polished, but of course you would expect that, um, We’re more polished, but I think the ceiling is still higher.
[00:46:44] Like, I, you can see it in so hand where that ceiling is through the roof where I think Maria is like, okay, very safe prospect, very high floor. So that’s where I think they’re, they’re pretty different. So
[00:46:55] Dillon Sage: his is Marie or a fourth power forward [00:47:00] after the big three of Paulo. Not in any order, I’m just what I’m thinking.
[00:47:05] Pala, Jabari and chat.
[00:47:10] Dustin Hawes: Yeah, probably I think that’s the word kind of drops off and you’ve got Maria and you’ve got so hand and then I couldn’t really
[00:47:15] Dillon Sage: tell you who else is, but that’s fine.
[00:47:18] Dustin Hawes: See, small forward or power forward. I put them under the floor. Okay. Yeah, I think, I think, and so Hannah are comparable. I think they’re more comparables prospects then.
[00:47:27] So hand and Keegan, Marie, I feel like tare
[00:47:30] Dillon Sage: is the fourth power forward, but. Like it, like we’re going to do mock drafts. And like, if we do like you pick, I pick you pick, I pick Easton’s going to go higher than a Keegan Murray and, uh, Jeremy. So yeah, I believe in, I believe in Tario much more than the other, the, the other guys that we just discussed.
[00:47:53] But, um, do you have anything else about these, uh, Baylor bear, uh, prospects? Do you think they go [00:48:00] far in the tournament? Yes. I
[00:48:02] Dustin Hawes: have Baylor losing to St. Mary’s in the sweet 16.
[00:48:06] Dillon Sage: I have them winning at all you Baylor
[00:48:08] Dustin Hawes: winning. Wow. Okay. Yeah, I do not have going back to back is so difficult. Even the bus.
[00:48:14] Dillon Sage: Fuck.
[00:48:14] Yeah, it is winning yo bro. When’s the last time anyone of our teams won anything in their, uh, their sports winnings fucking hard. So I don’t know, like I, I kinda, you know, I, I don’t see them losing the same areas. I think there are. I think they’re one of those, the elite teams.
[00:48:39] Dustin Hawes: All right, let’s wrap this bad boy up.
[00:48:41] Dillon Sage: All right, man. We are available everywhere. You find your podcasts and, uh, you know, the tournament starts tomorrow. So poof.
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